Monthly Archives: October 2007

Evidence-based Scheduling

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A couple of weeks ago, I went to a seminar put on by Fog Creek Software.  They’re doing a “world tour” to show off the newest version of FogBugz, their project tracking and scheduling software.  It’s pretty cool; there are a lot of new features and enhancements that have been added to the current version.  My lab uses FogBugz, but we’re a couple of versions behind.  Time to convince someone to upgrade!

One of the new features they’re very proud of is evidence-based scheduling, a way of predicting completion dates.  If you’re ever dealt with programmers, or the managers of programmers, you know that this is one of the hardest parts of of software development.  They seem to have nailed it pretty well.  Joel Spolsky explains the details in the link above, but briefly, it uses a modified Monte Carlo algorithm to predict the outcome based on past performance.

Another very nice feature is their integrated Wiki.  I’ve installed and used various flavors of Wiki software, and while they’re certainly useful, they do tend to be a bit rough.  There are quite a few free and open-source versions, a few commercial versions, and I find them all lacking on one way or another.  Currently I’m using TikiWiki, and while it does work, the user interface for posting could be better.  (Yes, I know it’s open source, and I should fix it instead of complaining, but I’m lazy and too busy.  So complain I will.)  Anyway, the Fog Creek guys have done a pretty seamless integration of a WYSIWYG Wiki into FogBugz.  I’ve written and asked them to release their Wiki as Open Source, but so far no reply.

San Diego Fires

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Just a brief note for my family and friends:  we’re all fine, and both my house and Sara’s house are both safe as of this moment.  We’re all ready to evacuate if the situation changes.  Should it become necessary, our plan is to head down to my boat in Mission Bay.  We can all sleep aboard Simone for a few days if we have to.  That won’t be fun, but not much of the current crisis is, and it beats the alternatives.

Sara’s school is not in a threatened area, but they shut it down and sent the kids home yesterday afternoon.  They’re all home today.  Pretty much everybody who doesn’t have to be somewhere is staying home today, just waiting it out. 

My lab was evac’ed yesterday during the day.  As of last night, it was still there but the fire was close.  I haven’t heard anything since then… but I haven’t seen the smoking ruins on the TV news and the I.T. infrastructure is still up, both of which are good things.  I work remotely and nothing here has been affected, except for a brief power outage last night.

It’s pretty surreal.  For those of us who haven’t been evacuated, the whole atmosphere is almost exactly like it is before and during a monster east-coast snowstorm.  Here where I live (in a semi-rural area of the county, east of the city of San Diego) the air is relatively clear with just a bit of smoke.  It’s clear, dry, and hot, with barely a breath of wind at the moment.  (“No wind” is the best possible news; unfortunately, it’s not true everywhere in the area.)

Please don’t try to call our cell phones; they’re all on the chargers in case we have to bail out quickly, the cell network is being badly strained from all the traffic, and some of the infrastructure has been destroyed by the fires.  If we do have to evacuate, we’ll update Sue as to the situation.